Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 35.884674 40.576311 46.107320 53.240679 62.405158 74.103874 90.755201
2025-05-11 29.413919 35.111245 42.515918 53.291087 69.475585 94.798887 142.879245
2025-05-18 25.048011 30.981954 39.223416 52.329560 74.682451 116.984824 229.401781
2025-05-25 22.332155 28.401772 37.293700 52.547163 81.825100 149.685744 439.924950
2025-06-01 20.189172 26.206952 35.383710 52.095710 87.568546 187.821384 1053.007527
2025-06-08 18.476554 24.363781 33.627313 51.337003 92.353798 233.532575 5420.822104
2025-06-15 17.116412 22.864667 32.149689 50.660787 97.094885 293.771679 NaN
2025-06-22 16.045647 21.683117 31.006848 50.332544 102.751465 384.246148 NaN
2025-06-29 15.004072 20.436259 29.568233 49.024351 104.944566 473.749938 NaN
2025-07-06 14.666688 20.291923 30.063245 52.100259 124.068584 986.861295 NaN
2025-07-13 13.926622 19.403705 29.060062 51.424403 129.272582 1565.147133 NaN
2025-07-20 13.388341 18.809725 28.539278 51.816820 139.765324 3983.424658 NaN
2025-07-27 12.914697 18.298001 28.136340 52.487622 153.267955 126429.344941 NaN
2025-08-03 12.433937 17.737260 27.573872 52.619205 164.961028 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 11.907577 17.059348 26.704759 51.714217 170.154905 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 11.523935 16.609865 26.259399 51.944525 183.993469 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 11.120355 16.098051 25.633493 51.509231 193.264884 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 10.726644 15.580938 24.950386 50.767960 199.834637 NaN NaN
2025-09-07 10.369287 15.110624 24.328217 50.105583 206.983629 NaN NaN
2025-09-14 10.062564 14.716971 23.839351 49.783954 217.859652 NaN NaN
2025-09-21 9.711114 14.223350 23.095605 48.499380 217.367136 NaN NaN
2025-09-28 9.664990 14.294274 23.599066 51.520031 276.770808 NaN NaN
2025-10-05 9.390487 13.920472 23.073751 50.856602 286.873279 NaN NaN